Wilderness Place Lodge - Lake Creek, Alaska

2009 Season – Fishing Forecast

 

The Deshka weir counting system is used by the Alaska Dept. of Fish & Game to index the overall health of the Susitna-Yentna River salmon runs each year.  The Deshka is the only established, accurate electronic weir counting system in the area.  The Deshka counts are an indirect reflection of  the salmon run numbers in Lake Creek and other area tributaries.   Run qualities of each stream in the system are usually comparable each year, yet total numbers of fish will vary dependent upon the size of the particular stream.  Each species of Salmon enter the Susitna River in large schools over the course of 1 – 4 weeks depending on the species.  These large schools of kings, silvers, etc. are comprised of Susitna River fish and Yentna River fish.  The majority of Yentna River fish are destined for Lake Creek, followed by the Talachulitna River system, and then by a large conglomerate of small Clearwater streams flowing into the Yentna and Skwentna Rivers collectively.

 

King (Chinook) Salmon

 

2009 King Salmon runs will be the offspring of the 2004 and 2005 parent populations

data source: Alaska Dept of Fish & Game

 

 

 

A record 57,934 king salmon were reported crossing through the ADF&G weir in June/July of 2004.  2005 escapement of kings topped 37,000.  Lake Creek, the Talachulitna River and most tributaries of the Yentna, Skwentna and Susitna rivers reported some of the largest king runs on record.

 

Projected run numbers for 2009 are based upon year 2004 and 2005 runs of king salmon.  Assuming average reproduction success rates for parents of 2004-2005 offspring, we should expect another above average run, or record number of king salmon this coming summer on the Deshka, Lake Creek and the entire Mat-Su valley.

King Salmon Area Trends over the past Decade

Data source: AK Dept. of Fish & Game

Graph c/o Wilderness Place Lodge

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver (Coho) Salmon

 

Above - average numbers of Silver salmon were reported in most streams in 2004 and 2005.  With 2009 comes a great report for Silver Salmon fishermen on Lake Creek and in the whole Mat-Su valley.  2009 numbers will reflect those of the year 2005 parent generation of 47,887 fish reported crossing the Deshka weir and total silver escapements should be above average due to minimal interception by commercial fisheries in Cook Inlet.

 

Based on the above trends, the projection for other salmon species are as follows:

Species	Life Cycle	Parent Generation	Parent Escapment #s (Deshka)	2009 Fishing Projection
PINK SALMON	2 years	2007	946,255	Excellent
SOCKEYE SALMON	4-5 years	2005	No data
CHUM SALMON	4 years	2005	No data